Joshua Paschal

A recent poll showed that 64% of GOPers would leave the GOP in favor of a MAGA Party, so I thought I would once again comment on why this would be a disaster for the American Right. (The poll can be found here: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/537442-poll-64-percent-of-gop-voters-likely-to-join-a-trump-led-3rd).

Assuming the party affiliation with normally track general election voting patterns as well, the functional result in the electoral college would be a -16% or so popular vote dip. Any party that comes third is, functionally, lost votes that could have delivered the second placer the win. Consider Missouri: with the Right together, they would likely win by 8%-14% in any election in the near future. But a split? Suddenly the DEMs would likely win: 40%-32%-22%. The electoral college (ironically a cornerstone of the GOP strategy for winning typically) would prevent the GOP and MAGA from even having a fighting chance: safe (likely to be +20% DEM) states alone would deliver the DEMs the election.

I don’t feel the need to go into this in more detail: I think the point speaks for itself. The best case would be MAGA or GOP eliminating the other, but that shift would take multiple election cycles. The DEMs would dominate the Presidency for at least a decade to come should a party split occur.

EDIT: The outcome would, numerically, closely resemble 1912’s results. As I’ve said before: if Teddy couldn’t do it, Trump could never. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912_United_States_presidential_election